CASE: BLOODLESS COUP CONCERT
John Aaron called the meeting of the programs and Arts Committee of the student Government Association to order.
“Okay, okay, everybody, quiet down. I have an important announcement to make,” he shouted above the noise. The room got quiet and John started again, “well, you guys, we can have the coup”.
“The coup, the coup! You know, the rock group, the bloodless Coup!”
Everyone in the room cheered and started talking excitedly. John stood up and waved his arm and shouted, “Hey, calm down, everybody, and listen up”. The room quieted again and everyone focused on John. “The good news is that they can come”. He paused a moment. “The bad news is that they will be here in 18 days”.
The students groaned and seemed to share Jim Hastings’s feelings. “No way, man. It can’t be done. Why can’t we put it off for a couple of weeks?”
John answered, “They are just starting their new tour and are looking for some warm-up concerts. They will be traveling near here for their first concert date in D.C and saw they had a letter from us, so they said they could come now. But that’s it, now or never.” He looked around the room at the solemn faces. “Look, you guys, we can handle this. Let’s think of what we have to do. Come one, perk up. Let’s make a list of everything we have to do get ready and figure out how long it will take. So somebody tell me what we have to do first!”
Anna Mendoza shouted from the back of the room, “We have to find a place; you know, get an auditorium somewhere. I’ve done that before, and it should take anywhere from two days to seven days, most likely about four days.”
“Okay, that’s great,” John said, as he wrote down the activity “Secure auditorium” on the blackboard, with the times out to side. “What’s next?”
“We need to print tickets-and quick’” Tracey Shea called. “It could only take a day if the printer is not busy, but it could take up four days if he is. It should probably take about two days.”
“But we cannot take print until we know where the concert will be, because of the security arrangement,” Andy Taylor noted.
“Right’” said John. “Get the auditorium first; then print the tickets. What else?”
“We need to make hotel and transportation arrangements for the Coup and their entourage while they’re here,” Jim Hastings proposed. “But we better not do that until we get the auditorium. If we cannot find a place for the concert, everything falls through.”
“How long do you think it will take to make the arrangements?” John asked.
“Oh, between 3 and 10 days, probably about 5, most likely,” Jim answered.
“We also have to negotiate with the local union for concert employees, stagehands, and whoever else we need to hire,” Reggie Wilkes interjected. “That could take a day or up to eight days, but three days would be my best guess.”
“We should probably also hold off on talking to the union until we get the auditorium’” John added. “That will be a factor in the negotiations.”
“After we work things out with the union, we can hire some stagehands,” Reggie continued. “That could take as few as two days but as long as seven. I imagine it’ll take about four days. We should also be able to get some student ushers at the same time, once we get union approval. That could take only a day, but it has taken five days in the past; three days is probably the most likely.”
“We need to arrange a press conference,” said Art Cohen, who was leaning against a wall. “This is a heavy group, big time.”
“But doesn’t a press conference usually take place at the hotel?” John asked.
“Yeah, that’s right, “Art answered. “We can’t make arrangements for the press conference until we work things out with the hotel. When we do that, it should take about three days to set up a press conference – two days if we’re lucky and four at the most.”
The room got quiet as everyone thought.
“What else?” John asked.
Hey, I know,” Annie Roark spoke up. “Once we hire the stagehands, they have to set up the stage. I think that could be done in a couple of days, but it could take up to six days, with three most likely.” She paused for moment before adding, “And we can also assign the ushers to their jobs once we hire them. That shouldn’t take long, maybe only a day – three days worst, probably two days would be good time to put down.”
“We also have to do some advertising and promotion if we want people to show up for this thing,” mentioned Art nonchalantly. “I guess we need to wait until we print the tickets, so we’ll have something to sell. That depends on the media, the paper, and radio stations. I’ve worked with this before. It could get done really quickly, like two days, if we can make the right contacts. But it could take a lot longer, like 12 days if we hit any snags. We probably ought to count on six days as out best estimates.
“Hey, if we’re going to promote this, shouldn’t we also have a preliminary act, some other group?” Annie asked.
“Wow, I forgot all about that!” John exclaimed. “Hiring another act will take me between four and eight days; I can probably do it in five. I can start on that right away, at the same time you guys are arranging for an auditorium until I get the lead-in group. So what’s left?”
“Sell the tickets,” shouted several people at once.
“Right,” said John. “We have to wait until they’re printed; but I don’t think we have to wait for the advertising and promotion to start, do we?”
‘No,” Jim replied. “But we should hire the preliminary act first so people will know what they’re buying a ticket for.”
“Agreed,” said John. “The tickets could go quick; I suppose in the first day.”
“Or,” interrupted Mike Eggleston, “it could take longer. I remember two years ago, it took 12 days to sell out for the cosmic Modem.”
“Okay, so it’s between one and 12 days to sell the tickets,” said John, “but I think about 5 days is more likely. Everybody agree?”
The group nodded in unison and they all turned at once to the list of activities and times John had written on the blackboard.
Now, the Programs and Arts Committee is interested to know the probability that the concert preparations will be completed in time. John Aaron made a team of few people and gave the responsibility to determine the probability that the concert preparations will be completed with in time. Assuming yourself as a leader of the team framed by John how you will determine the probability.